Forecast

Projected = on-the-books ÷ booking-pickup %(offer, day-of-week, days-out), blended with that offer's day-of-week × time-of-season average (pickup weighted near-term, seasonal further out), then storm (1"+ rain → ×0.6) and holiday (×1.25) adjustments, capped at capacity. Day-of-week curves matter because weekends are planned far ahead — a Saturday is ~45% booked 3 days out vs ~22% on weekdays. Current pace 0% of matched last year. Range = ±the historical spread of that offer's pickup at that lead (covers the actual ~75% of the time); confidence % maps that range width to backtest-observed accuracy, capped on storm days (⛈). Backtested point-in-time across 276 days of 2024–26: median error ~21% at 3 days out, ~16% the day before (2026 out-of-sample ~18%).